James Jones signs with Miami

What with his injury riddled season and all, we weren't sure James Jones would get the type of security he was seeking by opting out. You have probably heard by now he signed with Miami for five years and around four million annually. Good to see him get a pretty long term deal, sad to see last seasons NMVP go.

Jones has to be pretty happy with this deal. More and more we get the sense he saw the writing on the wall and knew Portland would prefer to give his minutes to younger players, no matter how much he helped the team.

Team wise, Miami could use Jones. His shooting will punish a lot of opponents for leaving him to double Wade. With additional players like Beasley and Marion, Jones is sure to get his share of open looks. If he is anything close to what he was in Portland, the Heat made a very good move signing him.

Jones is also from Miami, even playing there in college. His return home is marked by long-term financial security and the ability to fill an important need for the home team. Good move Mr. Jones.

The Value of James Jones

It makes sense for Portland's NMVP to do it. It became official that James Jones would opt-out of his Blazers contract. Of course, he has said he is open to returning to Portland next season if they make a fair market effort to retain his services. The draft may have taken the focus off of Jones, but this should be a serious issue for Blazers fans.

In an above link ESPN calls Jones a 3-point specialist. Shooting from deep is definitely his strength (44% last season), but it is far from his only one. He has been willing and able to mentor the younger players on the team. He has excellent basketball savvy. He plays above average defense. He had the third highest +/- on the team amongst players that played more than 20 minutes a game. Most of the Blazers winning came when Jones was healthy and getting consistent playing time.

You Blazer fans that scream for Portland to add a veteran to the team should appreciate what is right under your nose. That veteran you seek was here all along and is slowly walking out of the building, waiting for someone to give him a reason to stop. I'm not sure it will happen.

We may have seen the last of Jones in a Portland uniform. Roster spots are still at a premium in Portland. Worse for him is that his injury history may keep teams from offering the type of contract he is seeking. The player who was Portland's best SF last season may walk away from the team with (comparatively) little to show for it. Best of luck Mr. Jones.

Speaking of a lack of Blazers talk...

Considering this is a blog about the Blazers, I'm noticing there has been a startling lack of Blazer related stuff getting thrown around here recently. My bad. I'm not certain why this happened, but I'm sure it has something to do with the Blazers being hard to watch when missing both their MVP and their NMVP.

I suppose I could've written about how bad thing will suck under these conditions. Or I could've rehashed the optimism of "playing without Roy and James gives the other guys a great opportunity" thing. Eh. Maybe I've hit a blogger-rookie wall of sorts.

As I'm refocusing, I'll just go ahead and spew up some random things circling my mind at the moment. Maybe some will grow into full individual posts at some point:

• Have the Blazers given up on Sergio? Hear me out on this. The guy has been getting inconsistent play all season, and averaging just 9.3 minutes per game. But over the last 5 games, he's averaged just 6 minutes per. Factor in the strong perimeter need the Blazers have had recently with injuries to James Jones and Brandon Roy, and it seems even more strange. Its only 5 games, and Sergio never has gotten many minutes, but its something to keep an eye on. After a disappointing summer league/training camp, has Nate finally convinced KP this guy won't work?
• I like Von Wafer. Yes, I was sad to see Taurean Green go. But Wafer has some things going for him. Before the Clippers game I heard Jason Quick say he was brought in as a practice player. Because, you see, Roy previously had to spend scrimmages being guarded by Sergio or Green and this just wasn't very representative of actual games. My take is that it seemed to be working just fine. But thats me. Then Wafer came out and impressed in that ugly win against the Clippers after only one practice with the team (while Sergio collected another DNP). I hope we get to see more Wafer down the stretch.
• The Draft. Knowing KP is KP it is extremely hard not to be excited for the draft and beyond. What will they do with those picks, anyways? I'll be trying to keep tabs on things.
• LaMarcus. Remember this? Aldridge's first real full-season has had some expected ups and downs. Lately though, he's seemed a little different. I'm not sure if he's trying to step up in Roy's absence, or if things clicked for him, but the man has shown a new kind of consistent aggressiveness. It would be a great sign to see him keep this up when Roy comes back, and for the rest of his career.

Blazers vs Dallas and a Merciful Reprieve

Well, that was fun. As has been well documented, Portland tends to be pretty bad without NMVP James Jones, and remember he's out 3-5 weeks. Plenty of time for the team to figure out how to win without him, or for the wheels to fall off completely.

The good thing about the beating from Dallas is that it means we have mercifully reached the end of all this losing. Well, not the end. More like a much needed dunk-contest filled break until the losing resumes on the nineteenth. I'll take it.

If you want a fun distraction, be sure to get on board with the Hillsboro Flying Tostadas. I hear good things.

James Jones: NMVP

It has been well documented that Brandon Roy is this team's Everything. We know this. But for the sake of a blog-post on a slow day, who would you dub the team's Next Most Valuable Player? Aldrdige? Outlaw? Maybe in the future. This season I don't think there can be much doubt that it is James Jones. I bring this up now because the internet is madly in love with the man at the moment, just read this amazingly air tight case that popped up on TrueHoop. And, if I may link to myself for a moment, here's an excerpt from a December 13th entry after the Blazers beat the Warriors:

No coincidence all this winning has coincided with James Jones finding his groove. He continues to shoot at a ridiculous clip, and that threat has allowed other guys (most notably Brandon Roy) to operate much more effectively. Veteran savvy, deep stroke, better than you think defense, James Jones is absolutely huge for this team. By the way, in an oddly recent pop-culture reference, the Rose Garden people play a sample from rapper Mike Jones "Mr. Jones" whenever James scores. I was pleased indeed.

A truly savvy addition to this young team. He gives exactly what the team needs to win games. Great. Wait a second. He's making $2.9 million this season in a league where players earn an average of about $5 million. Portland has given him an opportunity to prove how helpful he can be. He has an opt-out option after the season, and with his stock so high, I imagine it could be a trail worth blazing. Will it lead out of town?

Jones likes being on this team. He likes being appreciated. He likes being one of the vets. But will Portland be willing to pay more than someone else? The choice may come down to love or money. Money has quite a winning percentage in this scenario.

Along with possibly being outbid by another team, Portland also faces the risk of a championship level team luring Jones away. Portland looks to be on the path to contending one day, but at age 27, I'm not sure Jones fits that timetable. Even if he decided to re-sign, could he do so in good faith that he's in the team's long-term plans? He's in his prime now. He brings savvy, defense, and shooting. These are qualities that often describe a title contender's "final piece." Top level teams will be very interested in this man. Players take this route from time to time.

So what will Mr. Jones choose? Love? Money? Rings? Tough call at this point, but attractive offers are likely to materialize. He is putting himself in a position to choose his own path, a big measure of success in this league. NMVP, tough decisions come with the territory.

Portland vs Chicago: winning and growing

Portland 115, Chicago 109, 2OT (boxscore)

Very tough, exhausting, double-overtime veteranish win. Outlaw was clutch, so I'm going to remind you about this. James Jones was his usual invaluable self. Aldridge did his thing, using Ben Wallace's dogmatic defense of the paint as an opportunity to go automatic with the perimeter jumper. Brandon Roy was, again, Everything. There will be lots of good analyses for this game out there, so I'll sum up by simply writing what was looping through my head during the last five minutes of the fourth and through both overtimes:

"Why is Jack running the offense so much? Why is Jack running the offense so much? Give it to Roy. Give it to Roy! Gaaaaaaa! Nice play, Jack..."

I've been a Jarrett Jack apologist for a long time, and was happy to see him out there making plays. But Brandon Roy is on this team, why go anywhere else down the stretch of a tight game?

The Consistent Stat

With growing interest in removing the soul quantifying basketball, the NBA has done some cool stuff like making plus/minus and "efficiency ratings" available. Pretty cool, but if you've ever had to take an intro stats class, you may have wondered why some basic and potentially insightful statistics are left out of boxscores. Among these, standard deviation sticks out as a good candidate to consider. If you need a refresher, this is a commonly used measure of the dispersion of data around the mean of that data. Or even easier, it tells you how much variation there is in the information you are looking at, a measure of consistency.

Seems useful, right? Would you rather have a player who averages 15 ppg that gives you exactly 15 points every night, or a player who averages 15 ppg but could give you anything between 0 and 30? Averages can miss how consistent a player is, and thats where standard deviation can help. It isn't perfect, but no stat really is.

You could run this on any stat, but I chose scoring since it enjoys such a glamorous life. I went through the game logs of Blazer rotation players and computed the standard deviation ("SD") of their scoring. I've also run a couple non-Blazer superstars for fun. I used the free web based software available here.

For interpretation purposes, I also put the ratio of points per game to SD. This was just to help compare players a little better, because ones with higher ppg are much more likely to have a higher SD due to their greater potential for scoring different point totals. For example, a player that scores 25 a night will have higher SD than a player that scores 6, just from working on a scale with more possibilities. The ratio between ppg and SD can be thought of as the variance relative to ppg.

I also included the median ppg of each player, which I also think is helpful. The median is the middle point if you lined up the player's points total from every game from lowest to highest. This makes it less influenced by outlier scores than averages. For example, a median higher than the average could show a player had a couple really low-scoring games.

Sorry for the long walk, who's the most consistent Blazer when it comes to scoring? Who's the least? I've arranged them in order from highest ppg ("Avg") to SD ratio to lowest:

Brandon Roy:
Avg: 19.23
Med: 21.5
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 2.72

LaMarcus Aldridge:
Avg: 17.48
Med: 18
SD: 7.23
Avg/SD: 2.42

Travis Outlaw:
Avg: 11.93
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.15
Avg/SD: 1.94

Martell Webster:
Avg: 11.00
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.23
Avg/SD: 1.77

Channing Frye:
Avg: 7.26
Med: 6
SD: 4.16
Avg/SD: 1.75

Jarrett Jack:
Avg: 9.87
Med: 9.00
SD: 5.95
Avg/SD: 1.66

James Jones:
Avg: 9.78
Med: 11
SD: 5.90
Avg/SD: 1.66

Steve Blake:
Avg: 7.47
Med: 6.50
SD: 4.83
Avg/SD: 1.55

Joel Pryzbilla:
Avg: 4.93
Med: 5.00
SD: 3.52
Avg/SD: 1.40

Sergio Rodriguez:
Avg: 2.86
Med: 2
SD: 2.75
Avg/SD: 1.04

To recap, the higher the Avg/SD ratio, the lower the SD relative to points per game. Higher ratios indicate more consistency.

Any surprises? The biggest might be Blake, but remember he's not really asked to do much scoring beyond what the defense gives him. That could mean a bevvy of open 3's or nothing, depending on the strategy the defense adopts, which in turn leads to lots of variance. Another note is that I rounded to two decimal places, and Jack is indeed a smidge ahead of Jones so gets the higher spot despite the equal rounded scores. These numbers include games completed through 12/31.

And here's some other guys, since I guess its sort of possible you aren't all only interested in only the Trailblazers. You can easily do this for whatever players you want on whatever stat is tracked, just fill out the spreadsheet that pops up on the link to the software used above and have at it. Data entry is where amazing happens.

Kobe Bryant:
Avg: 27.13
Med: 28
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 3.83

LeBron James:
Avg: 28.81
Med: 28
SD: 8.76
Avg/SD: 3.29

Yao Ming:
Avg: 21.5
Med: 22
SD: 6.63
Avg/SD: 3.24

Dwyane Wade:
Avg: 24.79
Med: 23.50
SD: 9.80
Avg/SD: 2.53

Portland vs Toronto: No jinxes here

That was cute when I thought this obscure blog mentioning that the Blazers were the hottest team in the league would jinx the game. By my tally the Blazers TV crew referenced this joyous little distiction about 3,897 times, and I took a break to get some cereal. I would think they have considerably more jinx juice than I. In any event, none of this matters tonight:

Portland 101, Toronto 96 (boxscore)


Nine in a row.

A flu-symptoms fighting Brandon Roy had it going all night, contributing his usual all around excellence to the degree of 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists. This city knows how much this guy means to the team, as evident from the "MVP" chants as he was shooting free-throws in the fourth quarter. How long has it been since Portland fans did such a chant? Clyde Drexler?

With the schedule Portland has played, the record they have, and the way Roy has played, he deserves to be an All-Star. It has nearly zero chance of happening this season, but thats fine. We know, and the rest of the league is still learning.

LaMarcus was back after a five game break, and didn't look all that rusty. He didn't have the impact we've grown accustomed to this season, but contributed a quiet 15 and 7.

Much of the game the Raptors had the Blazers infamous zone defense downgraded from The Octopus to The Seamonkey. Only after a fourth quarter surge did Portland finally take the lead. That international collection of shooters Toronto has must have been excited to hear they'd have a zone defense to shoot over and spread out all night. That Calderon, he's a cold man.

The game was made more difficult largely because Portland's usual gangbusting second unit wasn't shooting quite as hot. Toronto has their own nice zone defense, but Portland's two big bench guns-Outlaw and Jones- didn't resemble their offensive selves we've seen during much of the streak. Despite Outlaw's cold night (4-12 from the field), he got some critical buckets in the closing minutes, which speaks volumes to his growth as a player. James stepped up and iced the game from the line. Both played good defense and made big intangible plays throughout the game, especially Outlaw down the stretch.

This is getting scary. What a team.

Blazers vs Denver: Nick Cannon did this to you!

Blazers 116, Nuggets 105 (boxscore)


The seventh consecutive win was a mature and convincing one. Suddenly Portland is at .500 and continues to perform ahead of schedule. At this rate, the media will have to stop describing how other teams are losing to the Blazers and acknowledge that this team is straight-up beating people (Note: not tonight, ESPN is reporting "Blazers knock off Nuggets despite A.I.'s 38 points").


As has been true during this win streak, the Portland bench was an absolute force spearheaded by Outlaw (17 points, 5 rebs, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block) and James Jones (14 points, 7 rebs). If you want to see some eye-popping stats, check out James Jones by the way. I'm not sure how he keeps the ball from incinerating when he touches it.


Roy was his usual self. Despite taking a while to find his range (he started 2-10 from the field), Brandon finished his forty minutes of work with 26 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebs. When the Blazers start attracting national attention (I realize it will likely take Oden's return for this to happen), I will be excited for everyone to see how many ways this guy helps his team win. I can't say it enough, a very special player and a joy to watch.


LaMarcus sat out again tonight, but is scheduled to return next game. Starting in his place, Channing Frye took it upon himself to do his best LaMarcus impression by draining jumper after jumper from the perimeter. He had 14 points in the first 10 minutes of this game, and him stepping up helped the Blazers separate early. Frye ended up with 20 points (10-13 from the field) and 9 rebounds. It appears yet another Blazer has rounded into shape. Nate will have some interesting playing time decisions to make.


I can't talk about a Blazer win without praising that zone defense again. It wasn't featured as much tonight (Denver was pretty apt at lobbing oops over the top- Kenyon Martin threw three down on consecutive plays), but it you can tell the team believes in it and enjoys playing it. Mike Rice described it as "The Octopus Zone," which I enjoy and will use in all future references.


Oh, and as for the title of this entry...

Blazers vs Warriors: still hot

Blazers 105 Warriors 95 (boxscore)

Another game against a favored opponent, another victory. Now is a good time to point out that Portland is the second hottest team in the league, only Boston has a longer streak going. DeceptivelyQuick was well in attendance for the latest improbable sans-LaMarcus victory. Because I'm lazy, I'll just throw my thoughts into bullets:

• No coincidence all this winning has coincided with James Jones finding his groove. He continues to shoot at a ridiculous clip, and that threat has allowed other guys (most notably Brandon Roy) to operate much more effectively. Veteran savvy, deep stroke, better than you think defense, James Jones is absolutely huge for this team. By the way, in an oddly recent pop-culture reference, the Rose Garden people play a sample from rapper Mike Jones "Mr. Jones" whenever James scores. I was pleased indeed.
• Outlaw continued his amazing play off the bench. I'm not sure I know a single basketball person that approves of all those awkward fadeaway jumpers he takes, but when they fall you just shut-up and cheer. Any team that has a guy scoring 19 a game off the bench (Outlaw has averaged about this over the winning streak) is trouble.
• I love when Pryzbilla gets his minutes, and he got 30 tonight. In a throw-back to the Damon Stoudamire days, the Blazers actually used him on offense. Joel's no Tim Duncan with the ball, but he has proven many times that he is a capable finisher around the hoop, especially coming off a pick n roll. I hope this will be a continued option, and not something happening only because LaMarcus is out. Love that they play Thriller whenever Joel scores, by the way.
• Roy. Roy. Roy.
• I've been as big a Jarrett Jack supporter as there is out there, so when his shortcomings became painfully obvious, well, that sucked for me. I was relieved to see him eventually find a role. That role is not pointguard. For stretches of this game, Jack ran the point. During these stretches, the arena would hold its collective breath and grit its teeth hoping for the best.
• I've noted the most important void left by Z-Bo's departure. In other chalupa-related news, when the team gets close to 100 the mascot is on the jumbotron starting a chalupa chant (seriously). I can't support this. Not only did it confuse the Japanese people sitting by me, its like talking about a no-hitter while its in progress. Yet another reason Blaze the Trailcat sucks, he/she/it is conducting himself/herself/itself in a manner that is conducive to chalupa-jinxing. We can't have that dammit. Stop this at once.

Deceptively Quick's Blazers starters

A big feature in the Oregonian is detailing how nearly every position on the Blazers is up for grabs. Basically, we know Roy and Aldridge will start and thats about it. Although this topic has been beaten to death by other Blazer sites already, I am a hack, so I offer my starting five:

• PG: Jarret Jack. Sure, bringing in Steve Blake may have freaked out both Jack and myself. And while Sergio has apparently slipped out of the rotation (good for Jack), Taurean Green is stepping up in a big way (bad for Jack), and Nate loves tough pointguards like Green. We already know Blake is a Nate-guy. I still like Jack to earn the spot in training camp, simply because he's the most talented of the four, and won't give up his spot as incumbent starter so easily. Thats right, Jarret Jack.
• SG: Brandon Roy. I wish those of you who didn't watch much Blazers last year could truly understand how good Roy is. He really is the total package. I don't curse a whole lot on here but, (cover your ears!) I fucking love when Roy runs the point (my bad, should have said cover the eyes). That said, at least for this year, he'll probably start at the two, but will play point often during the game. Enjoy it.
• SF: James Jones. The competition for this spot is tight, with Outlaw, Webster, and rumors of a Miles comeback (in Decemberish, ugh). Outlaw's late season explosion while many opponents were simply playing out the schedule didn't impress me, it actually cost me the fantasy league title, so I hated it. Both he and Webster still have to get it together between the ears before they can start. I like what Jones could bring to this spot as a veteran with a shooting touch.
• PF: LaMarcus Aldridge. I can't wait to see LaMarcus this season. In case you didn't know, this guy will be an All-Star at some point in the next few years.
• C: Joel Pryzbilla. Don't think this is because I think he's better than Channing Frye, I think Frye will actually play more minutes and be the one to finish games. But Joel is another Nate-guy, and his defense and the fact that he won't take a lot of shots helps him fit in with the starting unit.

While I'm on it, here's a couple other actions I'm currently supporting:

• Trade Sergio Rodriguez. Ok, the Blazers like all four pointguards and want to keep them all for now, which I understand. Nate has said Sergio is currently out of the rotation. Next year, Portland has to bring over guard Rudy Fernandez. Supposedly, other teams are interested in Sergio. Portland needs to open up a spot in the backcourt. Will Sergio's trade value increase or decrease with him riding the bench all season? That's my case.
• Bring over Joel Freeland. You haven't forgotten about him, have you? Don't, because he's an animal. Oden is out for the season, so another big wouldn't hurt. Joel's current club, Gran Canaria, has a bizarre pattern of neither playing Joel nor helping him improve his skills in workouts. He's aching to get with the team and prove himself. I think Paul Allen can write a check and get him away from that last season with Gran Canaria. Why aren't we talking about this?