Deadspin is helping the NBA

By this point you have probably gathered that I'm in favor of publicizing every thing that sucks within the Basketball Universe. I maintain that this will lead to solutions at some unknown time in the future. The League is great at ignoring unsavories publically, but I choose to believe that constant media attention on things like referees and the age-limit has encouraged some in-house discussion, which can hopefully lead to change.

This is why what Deadspin has been doing with their NBA stat-inflating coverage is worthy of your support. Maybe this will lead to more NBA oversight on box score keeping. Maybe it will lead to more rigid (Read: European) guidelines on statistics. Maybe the League will take no action whatsoever.

The most important thing is to ensure that someone is talking about this as a real problem. At some point this will probably require more NBA statisticians to come forward and corroborate this lone source's information. At this moment all that is needed is for NBA fans to become aware that a lot of statistics are ridiculously questionable.

Early Weakened Pondering: Blazers Growth

Throughout this season we have periodically checked in on the Blazers Win-Loss profile and noticed that the team had the troublesome habit of losing to opponents ranked in the top ten in scoring. After 54 games, the team’s record against the top 10 scoring teams in the League was an unimpressive 8-13.

Just 23 games later, it appears that Portland may have figured this issue out. After 78 games played Portland is at an even 14-14 against the top 10 scoring teams. Yes, since their 8-13 start they have gone 6-1.

But the news isn’t all good. After 54 games the team was 12-1 against opponents that ranged in the 11 through 20 spots in scoring. Since then the team is just 2-5. Random statistical noise from a small sample? Has this team had trouble “getting up” for some of their less glamorous but still capable opponents? My hunch is that it’s probably nothing, and if it is, it doesn’t concern me much. This team has showed an impressive ability to solve weaknesses quickly and grow ahead of schedule. (Check out their recently much improved play on the road if you want another example.)

I'm off to an early weekened at DeceptivelyQuick. I'll be in attendance at the Nike Hoop Summit this Saturday, if you see me come say hi. I look like that one guy.

LaMarcus Aldridge, he is pretty good

LaMarcus Aldridge has been hotter than a pea-sized sun for the Blazers lately, which has some people wondering where Paul Allen is hiding his 193 giant lasers. Over the last ten games (prior to April 8th) Aldridge has averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds, 2.5 assists (have you heard he can pass?), and 1.5 blocks per contest.

While the broadcasting team ESPN had covering the game against San Antonio seemed shocked at Aldridge's ability to decimate the Spurs, nobody should have been surprised. Consider this interesting statistical habit of Aldridge: he tends to do more scoring damage against higher quality opponents. Take a look at his scoring output versus the good, the average, and the poor teams in the League:

Vs. The Good: 19.2 ppg
Vs. The Average: 18.4 ppg
Vs. The Poor: 17.7 ppg

I would have sooner expected this positive relationship for the likes of Brandon Roy, who seems content to let his teammates fill it up against lesser opponents and takes over when the situation demands it. The thing about stats is that they can poke holes in our unscrutinized beliefs. Check out the same numbers for RoyBot:

Vs. The Good: 21.4
Vs. The Average: 22.3
Vs. The Poor: 24.7

It will be interesting to see how Aldridge's pattern changes as he continues to progress. As his performance continues to improve, defenses will be increasingly motivated to slow him down. Will we see his pattern reverse directions and resemble that of Brandon Roy?

Weakened Pondering: Helping to increase your LaMarcus Aldridge appreciation

The stats of LaMarcus Aldridge this season are nearly identical to his 2007-08 campaign. Some of the similarities are sort of startling: his field goal makes and attempts are the same to the tenth decimal place.

But we are interested in more than Aldridge's curious replication tendencies. Despite a rabidly interested fan base he remains relatively misunderstood in Rip City. Often labeled as soft because he has a jumpshot, or derided as a mediocre rebounder even though he is among the League's elite in offensive boards, we at DeceptivelyQuick feel a call of duty to promote the truth.

In December of 2007 I was all excited and linked to this video collection of highlights featuring LaMarcus throwing all kinds of sweet passes. I was convinced that he possessed passing skills that were uncommon in a power forward. For whatever reason we didn't seem to get to see these particular talents displayed too often. He has never even averaged two assists per game, which doesn't exactly help my case.

Enter new basketball statistics. The people I steal from constantly, 82games.com, have created a different way to quantify passing skills. It starts with the classic assist to turnover ratio, which is commonly accepted as an indicator of how effectively a player can pass. Except that turnovers include all sorts of things besides passing. For example, if a player is whistled for travelling or gets the ball stolen while driving to the hoop a turnover would result. So the 82games.com geniuses started tracking something called assist: bad pass turnover. Yep, only turnovers resulting from passes are used, creating a stat that we can safely say is more related to how effectively a player passes the basketball.

Where does LaMarcus Aldridge rank in this category? Are you ready to have your mind blown? Then click here. I'll let you take that in for a second.

The Blazers power forward has the highest assist to bad pass turnover rate (7.1) in the entire NBA. This is freakish, and you need to appreciate that. There are no other power forwards or centers in the top 10. There are only three amongst the top 20. The four players immediately following Aldridge are Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Tayshaun Prince, and Jose Calderon.

LaMarcus Aldridge: Respect the game.

Weakened Pondering: Blazers production by position

Have you scoped out the NBA Team production by position breakdown over at 82games.com? I could try and explain it myself, but they do a much better job:

With over 4,000 pages of updated content per season, you might have missed the Production by Position numbers we create for both teams and individual players.

On the team side, this data is meant to showcase the kind of performance the team is seeing at each position (PG, SG, SF, PF, C) in a variety of stats -- Points, eFG%, Free Throw Attempts, Shot Selection (Inside Shot%), Rebounds, Assists, Turnovers, Blocks, and Fouls. We also show a variant of John Hollinger's PER, which allows for easy single-number comparisons and analysis of an overall production measure.

Cool indeed. Portland is among only six teams in the entire league that are getting top 5 production from more than one position. Here is the list of those teams, as well as their respective ranks at each spot:

Boston- PG: 2 , SG: 4 , SF: 2 , PF: 6 , C: 20

Cleveland- PG: 22 , SG: 5 , SF: 1 , PF: 3 , C: 9

Denver- PG: 3 , SG: 24 , SF: 5 , PF: 25 , C: 5

Lakers- PG: 24 , SG: 2 , SF: 12 , PF: 10 , C: 2

Philadelphia- PG: 4 , SG: 19 , SF: 3 , PF: 20 , C: 16

Portland- PG: 17 , SG: 3 , SF: 11 , PF: 4 , C: 14

Some quick impressions:

-Nice to see Portland on that list. Fans that say the Blazers have some dire need for more production from the PF position should probably stop talking for a while. (If only.) Anyone else surprised that Portland is so high at the SF position? Outlaw haters, respect the numbers on this one.

-Interesting to see Denver getting so much elite production, especially considering they have yet to get much respect as a legitimate power from the talking head collective of the basketball world.

-Another stat suggesting that Boston is still insanely good.

-Philly! The only .500ish team on the list. It would be interesting to get some thoughts on this from some 76ers fans.

Looking over this list brings the old team-sports cliche you're only as strong as your weakest link to mind. I got curious which of these teams have the best average rank across all positions. It seems like that could be an interesting indicator of how balanced a team's production is:

Boston AVG: 6.8

Cleveland AVG: 8

Portland AVG: 9.8

Lakers AVG: 10

Denver AVG: 12.4

Philly AVG: 12.4

Looking good Blazers.

Scoring Consistency Observation #2: For the haters of Travis Outlaw

This post is referencing the scoring consistency stat derived from this post. An in depth explanation of the stat is available here.

Travis Outlaw has become a bit of a polarizing figure in Rip City. He does some good things, like provide scoring off the bench. He also does bad things, like forgetting what play the team is running in the last possession of a game, showing up out of shape to training camp every year, and the occasional journey into delusions of grandeur.

That last heartbreaking loss to Orlando has given the trade Trout lobbyists a significant boost. But perhaps we aren't fully appreciating what Travis brings to this team. Not only does he average double figures off the bench, he does it at the second most consistent rate on the team.

Outlaw's PPGcr is 2.67. In December of last year it was 1.94. The addition of Oden and Fernandez were supposed to hurt Outlaw's scoring, but that has not been the case so far. Outlaw's PPG last December was within 1 point of his current season average. The only real change so far this season is that he is a much more consistent scorer.

It could be that he has improved his skills. Or perhaps having more competition for shots has increased his focus. Or maybe it is nothing more than a statistical aberration. But Outlaw being the second most consistent scorer on the team should not be ignored.

Scoring Consistency Observation #1: Brandon Roy at elite level

This post is referencing the scoring consistency stat derived from this post. An in depth explanation of the stat is available here.

One reason I calculated the consistency scoring stat (PPGcr) is because there is so much a simple PPG average doesn't tell us about how a player scores. For one, it doesn't explain how consistently that player scores their PPG. The consistency stat can shed some light on that.

A great example of this is Brandon Roy. Through 12/10 he is averaging 20.8 PPG. Last season he averaged 19.1. By looking soley at PPG one would correctly conclude that his scoring has increased modestly.

But there is more to this story. This season, Roy is scoring his points in a much more consistent way than in December of last season. Last December Roy's PPGcr was 2.72. This lead the Blazers but was significantly lower than elite players like Kobe and LeBron, who were at 3.83 and 3.29 respectively.

This season that has changed. Brandon Roy's consistently is now at a similar level to elite players in the league. Look how he stacks up:

Brandon Roy: PPGcr = 3.83

Wade: PPGcr = 3.47
Joe Johnson: PPGcr = 3.14
Kobe: PPGcr = 4.30

Side note: Although I haven't computed PPGcr for the whole league, the trend seems to be that a very good PPGcr is above 3.0. Look at Kobe's mark again. Mamba is the God of consistent scoring.

The Consistent Stat is NOT dead!

Only the hardcore among you will remember the Consistent Stat from last December. After having a bit of a caffeine overdose too late at night I decided now would be a good time to calculate the numbers on the 2008 Blazers.

Briefly, the Consistency Stat is produced by dividing the players PPG by the standard deviation of their scoring. This produces a number that reflects how the player's scoring deviates relative to how many points they average. It gives us an idea of how consistently they score their points. For a more in depth explanation/justification, and a peak at last season's numbers through December, take the above link.

Below, in order of most consistent to least, is how the Blazers are looking through 12/10/2008:

(PPGcr = Points Per Game consistency rating.)

#1:
Brandon Roy
PPGcr= 3.83

#2
Travis Outlaw
PPGcr= 2.67

#3
LaMarcus Aldridge
PPGcr= 2.62

#4
Steve Blake
PPGcr= 1.98

#5
Joel Przybilla and Rudy Fernandez
PPGcr= 1.86

#6
Channing Fry
PPGcr= 1.53

#7
Greg Oden
PPGcr= 1.32

#8
Nicolas Batum
PPGcr = 1.23

#9
Sergio Rodriguez
PPGcr = 1.12

Interpretations to follow.

Damon Stoudamire not happy with aging, Grizzlies agree

I'm feeling a little restless tonight. Last time, this resulted in the infamously wasteful "Consistent Stat." Tonight, there is a morsel of Blazer-related news to protect you all from a thousand-word post about statistics. Damon Stoudamire isn't getting playing time in Memphis, and he wants out.

The 34 year old Portland native and ex-Blazer has had it with having his playing time cut in the name of a youth movement, and is seeking a release or trade. Damon has defied odds for much of his career, at every level his height (generously 5'10) has fed skeptics. But at this stage, will any team be interested in his services? I've listed the age and the height, but there was also that whole season ending knee injury thing during in 2005-06. His contract has another year and 4.65 million after this one, so he's not yet quite entered the "expiring contract zone of hotness" recently occupied by luminaries like Theo Ratliff.

These elements would seem to make a trade relatively unlikely, at least for this season. If he can gut it out for the remainder of the year, it would likely be open season on that delicious expiring contract. Of course, then teams would be interested in his contract, not his skills, which would mean any opportunities to contribute on the court would be incidental.

So in the short term, Stoudamire needs to pray for a buy out. But there's a slight snag here. The Grizzlies lose 10.9 million a year, more than every other team except the Blazers and the Knicks. Due to the extreme wealth of the owners, the Blazers and the Knicks can deal. With the Grizz? Kind of an issue. That owner has a billion, not 16 billion. I want you to know I threw up a little typing that.

They'll do a buy out all right, as long as it means they don't have to pay nearly as much as the contract promises. Is the situation bad enough that Damon will walk away from millions? Is he ready to face the possibility that even if he does leave, teams may not exactly be lining up to offer him the role he wants? Expiring contract can be a tough role to adjust to, as can "former NBA player." But you never know, things could work out. Best of luck.

The Consistent Stat

With growing interest in removing the soul quantifying basketball, the NBA has done some cool stuff like making plus/minus and "efficiency ratings" available. Pretty cool, but if you've ever had to take an intro stats class, you may have wondered why some basic and potentially insightful statistics are left out of boxscores. Among these, standard deviation sticks out as a good candidate to consider. If you need a refresher, this is a commonly used measure of the dispersion of data around the mean of that data. Or even easier, it tells you how much variation there is in the information you are looking at, a measure of consistency.

Seems useful, right? Would you rather have a player who averages 15 ppg that gives you exactly 15 points every night, or a player who averages 15 ppg but could give you anything between 0 and 30? Averages can miss how consistent a player is, and thats where standard deviation can help. It isn't perfect, but no stat really is.

You could run this on any stat, but I chose scoring since it enjoys such a glamorous life. I went through the game logs of Blazer rotation players and computed the standard deviation ("SD") of their scoring. I've also run a couple non-Blazer superstars for fun. I used the free web based software available here.

For interpretation purposes, I also put the ratio of points per game to SD. This was just to help compare players a little better, because ones with higher ppg are much more likely to have a higher SD due to their greater potential for scoring different point totals. For example, a player that scores 25 a night will have higher SD than a player that scores 6, just from working on a scale with more possibilities. The ratio between ppg and SD can be thought of as the variance relative to ppg.

I also included the median ppg of each player, which I also think is helpful. The median is the middle point if you lined up the player's points total from every game from lowest to highest. This makes it less influenced by outlier scores than averages. For example, a median higher than the average could show a player had a couple really low-scoring games.

Sorry for the long walk, who's the most consistent Blazer when it comes to scoring? Who's the least? I've arranged them in order from highest ppg ("Avg") to SD ratio to lowest:

Brandon Roy:
Avg: 19.23
Med: 21.5
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 2.72

LaMarcus Aldridge:
Avg: 17.48
Med: 18
SD: 7.23
Avg/SD: 2.42

Travis Outlaw:
Avg: 11.93
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.15
Avg/SD: 1.94

Martell Webster:
Avg: 11.00
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.23
Avg/SD: 1.77

Channing Frye:
Avg: 7.26
Med: 6
SD: 4.16
Avg/SD: 1.75

Jarrett Jack:
Avg: 9.87
Med: 9.00
SD: 5.95
Avg/SD: 1.66

James Jones:
Avg: 9.78
Med: 11
SD: 5.90
Avg/SD: 1.66

Steve Blake:
Avg: 7.47
Med: 6.50
SD: 4.83
Avg/SD: 1.55

Joel Pryzbilla:
Avg: 4.93
Med: 5.00
SD: 3.52
Avg/SD: 1.40

Sergio Rodriguez:
Avg: 2.86
Med: 2
SD: 2.75
Avg/SD: 1.04

To recap, the higher the Avg/SD ratio, the lower the SD relative to points per game. Higher ratios indicate more consistency.

Any surprises? The biggest might be Blake, but remember he's not really asked to do much scoring beyond what the defense gives him. That could mean a bevvy of open 3's or nothing, depending on the strategy the defense adopts, which in turn leads to lots of variance. Another note is that I rounded to two decimal places, and Jack is indeed a smidge ahead of Jones so gets the higher spot despite the equal rounded scores. These numbers include games completed through 12/31.

And here's some other guys, since I guess its sort of possible you aren't all only interested in only the Trailblazers. You can easily do this for whatever players you want on whatever stat is tracked, just fill out the spreadsheet that pops up on the link to the software used above and have at it. Data entry is where amazing happens.

Kobe Bryant:
Avg: 27.13
Med: 28
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 3.83

LeBron James:
Avg: 28.81
Med: 28
SD: 8.76
Avg/SD: 3.29

Yao Ming:
Avg: 21.5
Med: 22
SD: 6.63
Avg/SD: 3.24

Dwyane Wade:
Avg: 24.79
Med: 23.50
SD: 9.80
Avg/SD: 2.53