This post is referencing the scoring consistency stat derived from this post. An in depth explanation of the stat is available here.
One reason I calculated the consistency scoring stat (PPGcr) is because there is so much a simple PPG average doesn't tell us about how a player scores. For one, it doesn't explain how consistently that player scores their PPG. The consistency stat can shed some light on that.
A great example of this is Brandon Roy. Through 12/10 he is averaging 20.8 PPG. Last season he averaged 19.1. By looking soley at PPG one would correctly conclude that his scoring has increased modestly.
But there is more to this story. This season, Roy is scoring his points in a much more consistent way than in December of last season. Last December Roy's PPGcr was 2.72. This lead the Blazers but was significantly lower than elite players like Kobe and LeBron, who were at 3.83 and 3.29 respectively.
This season that has changed. Brandon Roy's consistently is now at a similar level to elite players in the league. Look how he stacks up:
Brandon Roy: PPGcr = 3.83
Wade: PPGcr = 3.47
Joe Johnson: PPGcr = 3.14
Kobe: PPGcr = 4.30
Side note: Although I haven't computed PPGcr for the whole league, the trend seems to be that a very good PPGcr is above 3.0. Look at Kobe's mark again. Mamba is the God of consistent scoring.
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query consistency stat. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query consistency stat. Sort by date Show all posts
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The Consistent Stat is NOT dead!
Only the hardcore among you will remember the Consistent Stat from last December. After having a bit of a caffeine overdose too late at night I decided now would be a good time to calculate the numbers on the 2008 Blazers.
Briefly, the Consistency Stat is produced by dividing the players PPG by the standard deviation of their scoring. This produces a number that reflects how the player's scoring deviates relative to how many points they average. It gives us an idea of how consistently they score their points. For a more in depth explanation/justification, and a peak at last season's numbers through December, take the above link.
Below, in order of most consistent to least, is how the Blazers are looking through 12/10/2008:
(PPGcr = Points Per Game consistency rating.)
#1:
Brandon Roy
PPGcr= 3.83
#2
Travis Outlaw
PPGcr= 2.67
#3
LaMarcus Aldridge
PPGcr= 2.62
#4
Steve Blake
PPGcr= 1.98
#5
Joel Przybilla and Rudy Fernandez
PPGcr= 1.86
#6
Channing Fry
PPGcr= 1.53
#7
Greg Oden
PPGcr= 1.32
#8
Nicolas Batum
PPGcr = 1.23
#9
Sergio Rodriguez
PPGcr = 1.12
Interpretations to follow.
Briefly, the Consistency Stat is produced by dividing the players PPG by the standard deviation of their scoring. This produces a number that reflects how the player's scoring deviates relative to how many points they average. It gives us an idea of how consistently they score their points. For a more in depth explanation/justification, and a peak at last season's numbers through December, take the above link.
Below, in order of most consistent to least, is how the Blazers are looking through 12/10/2008:
(PPGcr = Points Per Game consistency rating.)
#1:
Brandon Roy
PPGcr= 3.83
#2
Travis Outlaw
PPGcr= 2.67
#3
LaMarcus Aldridge
PPGcr= 2.62
#4
Steve Blake
PPGcr= 1.98
#5
Joel Przybilla and Rudy Fernandez
PPGcr= 1.86
#6
Channing Fry
PPGcr= 1.53
#7
Greg Oden
PPGcr= 1.32
#8
Nicolas Batum
PPGcr = 1.23
#9
Sergio Rodriguez
PPGcr = 1.12
Interpretations to follow.
Scoring Consistency Observation #2: For the haters of Travis Outlaw
This post is referencing the scoring consistency stat derived from this post. An in depth explanation of the stat is available here.
Travis Outlaw has become a bit of a polarizing figure in Rip City. He does some good things, like provide scoring off the bench. He also does bad things, like forgetting what play the team is running in the last possession of a game, showing up out of shape to training camp every year, and the occasional journey into delusions of grandeur.
That last heartbreaking loss to Orlando has given the trade Trout lobbyists a significant boost. But perhaps we aren't fully appreciating what Travis brings to this team. Not only does he average double figures off the bench, he does it at the second most consistent rate on the team.
Outlaw's PPGcr is 2.67. In December of last year it was 1.94. The addition of Oden and Fernandez were supposed to hurt Outlaw's scoring, but that has not been the case so far. Outlaw's PPG last December was within 1 point of his current season average. The only real change so far this season is that he is a much more consistent scorer.
It could be that he has improved his skills. Or perhaps having more competition for shots has increased his focus. Or maybe it is nothing more than a statistical aberration. But Outlaw being the second most consistent scorer on the team should not be ignored.
Travis Outlaw has become a bit of a polarizing figure in Rip City. He does some good things, like provide scoring off the bench. He also does bad things, like forgetting what play the team is running in the last possession of a game, showing up out of shape to training camp every year, and the occasional journey into delusions of grandeur.
That last heartbreaking loss to Orlando has given the trade Trout lobbyists a significant boost. But perhaps we aren't fully appreciating what Travis brings to this team. Not only does he average double figures off the bench, he does it at the second most consistent rate on the team.
Outlaw's PPGcr is 2.67. In December of last year it was 1.94. The addition of Oden and Fernandez were supposed to hurt Outlaw's scoring, but that has not been the case so far. Outlaw's PPG last December was within 1 point of his current season average. The only real change so far this season is that he is a much more consistent scorer.
It could be that he has improved his skills. Or perhaps having more competition for shots has increased his focus. Or maybe it is nothing more than a statistical aberration. But Outlaw being the second most consistent scorer on the team should not be ignored.
Monday, December 31, 2007
The Consistent Stat
With growing interest in removing the soul quantifying basketball, the NBA has done some cool stuff like making plus/minus and "efficiency ratings" available. Pretty cool, but if you've ever had to take an intro stats class, you may have wondered why some basic and potentially insightful statistics are left out of boxscores. Among these, standard deviation sticks out as a good candidate to consider. If you need a refresher, this is a commonly used measure of the dispersion of data around the mean of that data. Or even easier, it tells you how much variation there is in the information you are looking at, a measure of consistency.
Seems useful, right? Would you rather have a player who averages 15 ppg that gives you exactly 15 points every night, or a player who averages 15 ppg but could give you anything between 0 and 30? Averages can miss how consistent a player is, and thats where standard deviation can help. It isn't perfect, but no stat really is.
You could run this on any stat, but I chose scoring since it enjoys such a glamorous life. I went through the game logs of Blazer rotation players and computed the standard deviation ("SD") of their scoring. I've also run a couple non-Blazer superstars for fun. I used the free web based software available here.
For interpretation purposes, I also put the ratio of points per game to SD. This was just to help compare players a little better, because ones with higher ppg are much more likely to have a higher SD due to their greater potential for scoring different point totals. For example, a player that scores 25 a night will have higher SD than a player that scores 6, just from working on a scale with more possibilities. The ratio between ppg and SD can be thought of as the variance relative to ppg.
I also included the median ppg of each player, which I also think is helpful. The median is the middle point if you lined up the player's points total from every game from lowest to highest. This makes it less influenced by outlier scores than averages. For example, a median higher than the average could show a player had a couple really low-scoring games.
Sorry for the long walk, who's the most consistent Blazer when it comes to scoring? Who's the least? I've arranged them in order from highest ppg ("Avg") to SD ratio to lowest:
Brandon Roy:
Avg: 19.23
Med: 21.5
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 2.72
LaMarcus Aldridge:
Avg: 17.48
Med: 18
SD: 7.23
Avg/SD: 2.42
Travis Outlaw:
Avg: 11.93
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.15
Avg/SD: 1.94
Martell Webster:
Avg: 11.00
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.23
Avg/SD: 1.77
Channing Frye:
Avg: 7.26
Med: 6
SD: 4.16
Avg/SD: 1.75
Jarrett Jack:
Avg: 9.87
Med: 9.00
SD: 5.95
Avg/SD: 1.66
James Jones:
Avg: 9.78
Med: 11
SD: 5.90
Avg/SD: 1.66
Steve Blake:
Avg: 7.47
Med: 6.50
SD: 4.83
Avg/SD: 1.55
Joel Pryzbilla:
Avg: 4.93
Med: 5.00
SD: 3.52
Avg/SD: 1.40
Sergio Rodriguez:
Avg: 2.86
Med: 2
SD: 2.75
Avg/SD: 1.04
To recap, the higher the Avg/SD ratio, the lower the SD relative to points per game. Higher ratios indicate more consistency.
Any surprises? The biggest might be Blake, but remember he's not really asked to do much scoring beyond what the defense gives him. That could mean a bevvy of open 3's or nothing, depending on the strategy the defense adopts, which in turn leads to lots of variance. Another note is that I rounded to two decimal places, and Jack is indeed a smidge ahead of Jones so gets the higher spot despite the equal rounded scores. These numbers include games completed through 12/31.
And here's some other guys, since I guess its sort of possible you aren't all only interested in only the Trailblazers. You can easily do this for whatever players you want on whatever stat is tracked, just fill out the spreadsheet that pops up on the link to the software used above and have at it. Data entry is where amazing happens.
Kobe Bryant:
Avg: 27.13
Med: 28
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 3.83
LeBron James:
Avg: 28.81
Med: 28
SD: 8.76
Avg/SD: 3.29
Yao Ming:
Avg: 21.5
Med: 22
SD: 6.63
Avg/SD: 3.24
Dwyane Wade:
Avg: 24.79
Med: 23.50
SD: 9.80
Avg/SD: 2.53
Seems useful, right? Would you rather have a player who averages 15 ppg that gives you exactly 15 points every night, or a player who averages 15 ppg but could give you anything between 0 and 30? Averages can miss how consistent a player is, and thats where standard deviation can help. It isn't perfect, but no stat really is.
You could run this on any stat, but I chose scoring since it enjoys such a glamorous life. I went through the game logs of Blazer rotation players and computed the standard deviation ("SD") of their scoring. I've also run a couple non-Blazer superstars for fun. I used the free web based software available here.
For interpretation purposes, I also put the ratio of points per game to SD. This was just to help compare players a little better, because ones with higher ppg are much more likely to have a higher SD due to their greater potential for scoring different point totals. For example, a player that scores 25 a night will have higher SD than a player that scores 6, just from working on a scale with more possibilities. The ratio between ppg and SD can be thought of as the variance relative to ppg.
I also included the median ppg of each player, which I also think is helpful. The median is the middle point if you lined up the player's points total from every game from lowest to highest. This makes it less influenced by outlier scores than averages. For example, a median higher than the average could show a player had a couple really low-scoring games.
Sorry for the long walk, who's the most consistent Blazer when it comes to scoring? Who's the least? I've arranged them in order from highest ppg ("Avg") to SD ratio to lowest:
Brandon Roy:
Avg: 19.23
Med: 21.5
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 2.72
LaMarcus Aldridge:
Avg: 17.48
Med: 18
SD: 7.23
Avg/SD: 2.42
Travis Outlaw:
Avg: 11.93
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.15
Avg/SD: 1.94
Martell Webster:
Avg: 11.00
Med: 11.00
SD: 6.23
Avg/SD: 1.77
Channing Frye:
Avg: 7.26
Med: 6
SD: 4.16
Avg/SD: 1.75
Jarrett Jack:
Avg: 9.87
Med: 9.00
SD: 5.95
Avg/SD: 1.66
James Jones:
Avg: 9.78
Med: 11
SD: 5.90
Avg/SD: 1.66
Steve Blake:
Avg: 7.47
Med: 6.50
SD: 4.83
Avg/SD: 1.55
Joel Pryzbilla:
Avg: 4.93
Med: 5.00
SD: 3.52
Avg/SD: 1.40
Sergio Rodriguez:
Avg: 2.86
Med: 2
SD: 2.75
Avg/SD: 1.04
To recap, the higher the Avg/SD ratio, the lower the SD relative to points per game. Higher ratios indicate more consistency.
Any surprises? The biggest might be Blake, but remember he's not really asked to do much scoring beyond what the defense gives him. That could mean a bevvy of open 3's or nothing, depending on the strategy the defense adopts, which in turn leads to lots of variance. Another note is that I rounded to two decimal places, and Jack is indeed a smidge ahead of Jones so gets the higher spot despite the equal rounded scores. These numbers include games completed through 12/31.
And here's some other guys, since I guess its sort of possible you aren't all only interested in only the Trailblazers. You can easily do this for whatever players you want on whatever stat is tracked, just fill out the spreadsheet that pops up on the link to the software used above and have at it. Data entry is where amazing happens.
Kobe Bryant:
Avg: 27.13
Med: 28
SD: 7.08
Avg/SD: 3.83
LeBron James:
Avg: 28.81
Med: 28
SD: 8.76
Avg/SD: 3.29
Yao Ming:
Avg: 21.5
Med: 22
SD: 6.63
Avg/SD: 3.24
Dwyane Wade:
Avg: 24.79
Med: 23.50
SD: 9.80
Avg/SD: 2.53
Friday, July 6, 2007
Oden's Debut: Portland Notes
I just finished watching Portland kick-off their summer league in Vegas against the Boston Celtics. Oden's debut will obviously command much of everyone's analysis, but there was quite a collection of young talent on both squads to be excited about.
(Because of blogger length limitations, I've broken my Portland and Boston notes up into two separate posts: Boston Notes are here. Also, read why David Stern wants you to hate him.)
The Celtics won 74-66 (boxscore). It wasn't as close at the final score, Boston was comfortably in control a majority of the time.
Notes from the game:
Oden: Lets just say he took full advantage of the generous foul system in place during Summer League. He collected 10 fouls in 20 minutes, and was far from dominating offensively in the post. He is pretty unselfish with the ball, he gave a few nice looks to Aldridge when they ran high-low. Even while struggling, it was hard to ignore his presence. He changes games just by being on the court. Him and Aldrige showed they will play well together on both ends, it will be great to watch this dynamic develop.
Taurean Green: Sergio is obviously going to get the minutes this summer as they try to raise his consistency, but Green was no doubt Portland's best guard tonight (not bad for a guy taken #52 in the draft). He plays hard and showed his toughness getting numerous steals and rebounds. Plus its always fun to watch players that are that fast. Just like the scouting report says though, the jumper is a little shaky.
Lamarcus Aldridge: He is the truth, and it was all on display tonight. With his array of jumpers, post moves, blocks, rebounds, and ability to run the floor, Aldridge is on another level than the summer-league competition. He won't have any problems shouldering the offensive load this season down low if Oden needs time to develop.
Sergio Rodriguez: The Blazers are playing him a lot in an attempt to raise is quality of play when logging big minutes. Rondo was on his hip all night, and although Sergio managed to shake free on several occasions his teammates were often ill-prepared to do anything with his passes. A little disappointing tonight.
Joel Freeland: Gets a bullet point just because I've been hyping him up so much lately. Sadly, we didn't see much of Freeland (the pattern continues), but he had one very nice play on defense where he blocked a Leon Powe dunk attempt. I yelled, "White Keon Claaaaaarke!"
Martell Webster: Don't let the stat line fool you, Martell was mostly a non-factor until the fourth quarter when the outcome had been determined. He managed to show his potential with his athleticism and beautiful shot, but still didn't really seem like he has put it all together. He had some success when Portland would run him off of screens for catch-and-shoots (as opposed to what we saw all last season-Martell standing in the corner), maybe they'll explore that route more in the future.
Stefano Mancinelli: Wow, anyone predict this guy to get so much burn? Despite almost 20 minutes of PT, Mancinelli didn't do much. I spent the whole game wondering why he was in instead of forwards like McRoberts (4:32) or Freeland (9:46).
Unfortunately, we didn't get to see much of "The Finnagler" Petteri Koponen or hometown guy Terrance Green. Terrance is in the impossible position of needing desperately to impress to get on with an NBA team, but not getting an opportunity to play. Hopefully that will change, but as a 4th pointguard on the roster, isn't likely.
Overall the game was typical Summer League in that the quality of play pretty much sucked. The tempo was disjointed and there was a whole lot of fouling going on. With all these talented young players it would have been great if the teams could have gotten out and ran more, but this happened rarely. It was still nice to see how players are developing, and let us all pray for the end of internet blackouts.
(Because of blogger length limitations, I've broken my Portland and Boston notes up into two separate posts: Boston Notes are here. Also, read why David Stern wants you to hate him.)
The Celtics won 74-66 (boxscore). It wasn't as close at the final score, Boston was comfortably in control a majority of the time.
Notes from the game:
Oden: Lets just say he took full advantage of the generous foul system in place during Summer League. He collected 10 fouls in 20 minutes, and was far from dominating offensively in the post. He is pretty unselfish with the ball, he gave a few nice looks to Aldridge when they ran high-low. Even while struggling, it was hard to ignore his presence. He changes games just by being on the court. Him and Aldrige showed they will play well together on both ends, it will be great to watch this dynamic develop.
Taurean Green: Sergio is obviously going to get the minutes this summer as they try to raise his consistency, but Green was no doubt Portland's best guard tonight (not bad for a guy taken #52 in the draft). He plays hard and showed his toughness getting numerous steals and rebounds. Plus its always fun to watch players that are that fast. Just like the scouting report says though, the jumper is a little shaky.
Lamarcus Aldridge: He is the truth, and it was all on display tonight. With his array of jumpers, post moves, blocks, rebounds, and ability to run the floor, Aldridge is on another level than the summer-league competition. He won't have any problems shouldering the offensive load this season down low if Oden needs time to develop.
Sergio Rodriguez: The Blazers are playing him a lot in an attempt to raise is quality of play when logging big minutes. Rondo was on his hip all night, and although Sergio managed to shake free on several occasions his teammates were often ill-prepared to do anything with his passes. A little disappointing tonight.
Joel Freeland: Gets a bullet point just because I've been hyping him up so much lately. Sadly, we didn't see much of Freeland (the pattern continues), but he had one very nice play on defense where he blocked a Leon Powe dunk attempt. I yelled, "White Keon Claaaaaarke!"
Martell Webster: Don't let the stat line fool you, Martell was mostly a non-factor until the fourth quarter when the outcome had been determined. He managed to show his potential with his athleticism and beautiful shot, but still didn't really seem like he has put it all together. He had some success when Portland would run him off of screens for catch-and-shoots (as opposed to what we saw all last season-Martell standing in the corner), maybe they'll explore that route more in the future.
Stefano Mancinelli: Wow, anyone predict this guy to get so much burn? Despite almost 20 minutes of PT, Mancinelli didn't do much. I spent the whole game wondering why he was in instead of forwards like McRoberts (4:32) or Freeland (9:46).
Unfortunately, we didn't get to see much of "The Finnagler" Petteri Koponen or hometown guy Terrance Green. Terrance is in the impossible position of needing desperately to impress to get on with an NBA team, but not getting an opportunity to play. Hopefully that will change, but as a 4th pointguard on the roster, isn't likely.
Overall the game was typical Summer League in that the quality of play pretty much sucked. The tempo was disjointed and there was a whole lot of fouling going on. With all these talented young players it would have been great if the teams could have gotten out and ran more, but this happened rarely. It was still nice to see how players are developing, and let us all pray for the end of internet blackouts.
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